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May 15, 2018
This month is once again particularly eventful for the emerging world.
Argentina is again under pressure with interest rates raised to 40%, the hypothesis of an aid request to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Peso at its historic lows. Turkey, on the eve of the elections, will probably be forced to run for cover with a rise in rates in an attempt to defend the Lira at new absolute lows against the Dollar and the Euro. The outflows from the emerging bond world are increasing by investors with a decline in the investments of this asset now exceeding 5% from the beginning of the year.
The geopolitical tensions in Middle East have contributed to ignite the price of oil over $ 70 per barrel and this has favoured the Russian Ruble that has managed to regain some ground.
An extreme weakness on the Turkish currency as a result of a combination of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the forthcoming elections in June in which Erdogan will have to find some confirmations to avoid instability in a country that has been hit hard by devaluation and inflation. From a technical point of view, UsdTry has hit a historical top at 4.42 a real sell off that does not leave great expectations of a trend revers in the short term.
Thanks to the strength of the oil that rose above 70 US dollars per barrel, the Russian Ruble has recovered a lot of positions. After reaching a top at 65 due to the new sanctions imposed by the United States, UsdRub has tried in the last two weeks to bring those resistances closer, but with closures in both cases on the weekly lows. In theory, this is a good signal, but attention is still to the resistance of 65, which would make the technical situation of the Ruble quite delicate in case of a failure.
Last month, we anticipated the possibility that the Mexican Peso could get a downward pressure due to the forthcoming political elections. Four consecutive weeks of upside for UsdMxn with the support of area 18 that seems to have done its job very well. At this point UsdMxn is facing a fork: the return above 20 would feed an inevitable bullish push towards the tops, while an unfavourable change of scenario would be clearly recorded under 18.
In line with the whole emerging world, the month of April was negative for the South African Rand with the recent rise of UsdZar, which favoured a stretch over 13, not far from the transit area of the bear trend in place since 2016. Also in this case UsdZar is tightly between the long-term supports and the medium-term resistances. Depending on the exit side of UsdZar it will be possible to define a strategy. At the moment, the long term bullish one is still the best.
May 04, 2018
The dollar is the protagonist again thanks to the combined effect of 10-year US yields at 3% and a less aggressive ECB pressing on the need to normalize the monetary policy in Europe.
April 22, 2018
Bitcoin has been in a falling trend since the start of the year, but the cryptocurrency is currently attempting to break above resistance.
April 19, 2018
The month of April is proving to be full of events for emerging currencies which have suffered from the intensification of trading tensions between United States and China concerning duties, but also from the renewed political tensions between United States and Russia over the Syrian issue.
April 05, 2018
After the month of March we are now entering the month of April, in which the seasonality produces its effects.
March 22, 2018
The emerging currency market is waiting for the evident rise in rates in the United States from the Federal Reserve.
March 08, 2018
A more “hawkins” Powell than expected gave a nice boost to the US dollar with the 2-year interest rates back to 2.25%.
February 21, 2018
February has been quite a volatile month so far for the emerging currencies market together with some interesting strengthening stories (South African Rand) and others not so much (see Brazilian Real and Russian Ruble).
February 08, 2018
The month of February started with a weak Dollar against all the major world currencies, a situation that, in a slightly disordered way, Draghi first and then Trump tried to contain with the usual declaration of the need for a strong Dollar.
January 24, 2018
The month of January was quiet with some currencies that emerged against the US dollar.
December 21, 2017
December has not been volatile so far on emerging currencies as in other years when movements on exotic currencies tended to be more important.
December 07, 2017
The usual analysis of the beginning of the month starts with the main exchange rates in a very interesting month for many reasons.
November 24, 2017
The month of November is proving to be very tormented for emerging currencies, but there is much more than this.
November 07, 2017
November started with a somewhat anonymous Federal Reserve meeting that still does not dismantle the market expectations of a new rate hike in sight for the latest 2017 meeting in December.
October 25, 2017
A negative September for emerging currencies that lost 3% against the Dollar from the peak of the ninth month of the year.
October 13, 2017
In the month of October a lot of attention will be focused on Europe for political reasons as well as for economic reasons.
September 27, 2017
In September, the two major banks in the world have shown how the normalization of the monetary policy will continue, but at the same time will be accompanied by a long period of low rates.
September 24, 2017
When Charles Dow invented swing trading in the late 1908, he could not imagine such a great diffusion of this simple global yet very effective technique.
September 13, 2017
The ECB meeting of last Thursday officially reopened the final part of 2017 for financial markets.
September 07, 2017
September is usually a particularly interesting month for every financial market because it follows August miserable macroeconomic data and appointments with major central banks.
August 18, 2017
August is usually a volatile month for emerging currencies but it is also useful in estimating possible entry points for any tactical trade in the last part of the year.
August 03, 2017
In the month of July the Dollar has been the negative protagonist and the Euro the positive one, with other currencies more commodity-oriented and capable of earning different positions.
July 31, 2017
August is traditionally a volatile month for the currency and financial world in general and therefore the economic data that could represent a market mover must be kept under close observation.
July 05, 2017
The emerging world starts the month of July under unfavourable conditions. June has been a difficult month for some currencies, first of all the Russian Ruble and then the Brazilian Real, due to rising rates in the US, but also to the continued deterioration in oil prices.
June 28, 2017
The month of June was characterized by the good strength of the currency commodity then damped in the final phase. New Zealand, Canadian and Australian dollars have been the most important currencies with their divergence and the disappointing performance of the commodities.