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September 13, 2017
The ECB meeting of last Thursday officially reopened the final part of 2017 for financial markets.
The end of the QE in Euroland, the possible stop in the rise of US rates on the eve of the deadline of Miss Yellen as Federal Reserve President, the unknowns of the Brexit and UK-EU negotiations, geopolitical tensions with North Korea are just some of the themes that could move financial markets and forex in the coming months. So let's see what is going to happen in the last months of this year for the major world currencies.
EurUsd strength process has come into contact with the important psychological level of 1.20. At this point we wonder if we have reached such a level to make the purchase of a Dollar interesting enough: a licit question that still does not have a certain answer. Analysing the long-term chart, we can see how an over-bought weekly scale has been reached among the highest in the last decade. At the same time, however, EurUsd has not yet touched the two standard deviations of the bearish regression line. This phenomenon has always been close to the highest and lowest primary levels and would prelude a test at 1.22 / 1.23 before a trend reversal. The strong resistances represented by the low of 2010 and 2012 will be a rather difficult wall to break through on a first attempt.
UsdJpy weakness continues with the support of area 108 still under pressure. The decline in US yields and the rise of gold fully pander the Japanese trend, but the strange fact is that these assets, typically bought in the flight to quality phases, are earning with US stock indices on the historical highest. Historical correlations are therefore ineffective in one of the least volatile moments of history. UsdJpy key support can be found at 107, the transit zone of the rising trend line since 2012. Below that level we believe that a stock market at current levels will be hardly sustainable.
The weakness of the US dollar is stronger than the British Pound, so the GbpUsd upward trend has been going on since October 2016. The last two months have been a recovery for the Cable and also September has begun with a rise. The toughest obstacle is still area 1.35 already at the low of 2009. Here, GbpUsd will also find the bearish trend line and this may coincide with the depletion of the strength of the British currency on the Dollar. Brexit continues to float on Pound quotations.
AudUsd attempt to break away from the long-term bullish trend line keeps going on and is seconded by the monthly Macd now close to the zero line. 0.80 is still the toughest obstacle for the Aussie before the bullish trend is restored. So far we can list the current movement as a technical rebound after a long negative period for commodities and indeed AudUsd. The return to area 0.85 where the pressures on the sale will be more consistent due to the presence of 38.2% of withdrawal of the entire bear market is very likely.
February 03, 2019
The GBPUSD pair has seen a strong rise in 2019 so far. The technical picture on the daily chart even suggests that there's more upside ahead.
May 15, 2018
This month is once again particularly eventful for the emerging world.
May 04, 2018
The dollar is the protagonist again thanks to the combined effect of 10-year US yields at 3% and a less aggressive ECB pressing on the need to normalize the monetary policy in Europe.
April 22, 2018
Bitcoin has been in a falling trend since the start of the year, but the cryptocurrency is currently attempting to break above resistance.
April 19, 2018
The month of April is proving to be full of events for emerging currencies which have suffered from the intensification of trading tensions between United States and China concerning duties, but also from the renewed political tensions between United States and Russia over the Syrian issue.
April 05, 2018
After the month of March we are now entering the month of April, in which the seasonality produces its effects.
March 22, 2018
The emerging currency market is waiting for the evident rise in rates in the United States from the Federal Reserve.
March 08, 2018
A more “hawkins” Powell than expected gave a nice boost to the US dollar with the 2-year interest rates back to 2.25%.
February 21, 2018
February has been quite a volatile month so far for the emerging currencies market together with some interesting strengthening stories (South African Rand) and others not so much (see Brazilian Real and Russian Ruble).
February 08, 2018
The month of February started with a weak Dollar against all the major world currencies, a situation that, in a slightly disordered way, Draghi first and then Trump tried to contain with the usual declaration of the need for a strong Dollar.
January 24, 2018
The month of January was quiet with some currencies that emerged against the US dollar.
December 21, 2017
December has not been volatile so far on emerging currencies as in other years when movements on exotic currencies tended to be more important.
December 07, 2017
The usual analysis of the beginning of the month starts with the main exchange rates in a very interesting month for many reasons.
November 24, 2017
The month of November is proving to be very tormented for emerging currencies, but there is much more than this.
November 07, 2017
November started with a somewhat anonymous Federal Reserve meeting that still does not dismantle the market expectations of a new rate hike in sight for the latest 2017 meeting in December.
October 25, 2017
A negative September for emerging currencies that lost 3% against the Dollar from the peak of the ninth month of the year.
October 13, 2017
In the month of October a lot of attention will be focused on Europe for political reasons as well as for economic reasons.
September 27, 2017
In September, the two major banks in the world have shown how the normalization of the monetary policy will continue, but at the same time will be accompanied by a long period of low rates.
September 24, 2017
When Charles Dow invented swing trading in the late 1908, he could not imagine such a great diffusion of this simple global yet very effective technique.
September 07, 2017
September is usually a particularly interesting month for every financial market because it follows August miserable macroeconomic data and appointments with major central banks.
August 18, 2017
August is usually a volatile month for emerging currencies but it is also useful in estimating possible entry points for any tactical trade in the last part of the year.
August 03, 2017
In the month of July the Dollar has been the negative protagonist and the Euro the positive one, with other currencies more commodity-oriented and capable of earning different positions.
July 31, 2017
August is traditionally a volatile month for the currency and financial world in general and therefore the economic data that could represent a market mover must be kept under close observation.
July 05, 2017
The emerging world starts the month of July under unfavourable conditions. June has been a difficult month for some currencies, first of all the Russian Ruble and then the Brazilian Real, due to rising rates in the US, but also to the continued deterioration in oil prices.