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Forex majors technical analysis – September

September 13, 2017

The ECB meeting of last Thursday officially reopened the final part of 2017 for financial markets.

The end of the QE in Euroland, the possible stop in the rise of US rates on the eve of the deadline of Miss Yellen as Federal Reserve President, the unknowns of the Brexit and UK-EU negotiations, geopolitical tensions with North Korea are just some of the themes that could move  financial markets and forex in the coming months. So let's see what is going to happen in the last months of this year for the  major world currencies.



EurUsd strength process has come into contact with the important psychological level of 1.20. At this point we wonder if we have reached such a level to make the purchase of a Dollar interesting enough: a licit question that still does not have a certain answer. Analysing the long-term chart, we can see how an over-bought weekly scale has been reached among the highest in the last decade. At the same time, however, EurUsd has not yet touched the two standard deviations of the bearish regression line. This phenomenon has always been close to the highest and lowest primary levels and would prelude a test at 1.22 / 1.23 before a trend reversal. The strong resistances represented by the low of 2010 and 2012 will be a rather difficult wall to break through on a first attempt.



UsdJpy weakness continues with the support of area 108 still under pressure. The decline in US yields and the rise of gold fully pander the Japanese trend, but the strange fact is that these assets, typically bought in the flight to quality phases, are earning with US stock indices on the historical highest. Historical correlations are therefore ineffective in one of the least volatile moments of history. UsdJpy key support can be found at 107, the transit zone of the rising trend line since 2012. Below that level we believe that a stock market at current levels will be hardly sustainable.



The weakness of the US dollar is stronger than the British Pound, so the GbpUsd upward trend has been going on since October 2016. The last two months have been a recovery for the Cable and also September has begun with a rise. The toughest obstacle is still area 1.35 already at the low of  2009. Here, GbpUsd will also find the bearish trend line and this may coincide with the depletion of the strength of the British currency on the Dollar. Brexit continues to float on Pound quotations.



AudUsd attempt to break away from the long-term bullish trend line keeps going on and is seconded by the monthly Macd now close to the zero line. 0.80 is still the toughest obstacle for the Aussie before the bullish trend is restored. So far we can list the current movement as a technical rebound after a long negative period for commodities and indeed AudUsd. The return to area 0.85 where the pressures on the sale will be more consistent due to the presence of 38.2% of withdrawal of the entire bear market is very likely.

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