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August 18, 2017
August is usually a volatile month for emerging currencies but it is also useful in estimating possible entry points for any tactical trade in the last part of the year.
If this weakness has been evident so far against the Euro, it has been less invasive against the Dollar precisely because of the weakness of the American currency. Let's look at the main emerging exchange rates and their outlooks.
UsdMxn is experiencing a moderate rebound. The sentiment towards the Peso is still over positive also thanks to the technical support and the oversold of August. Furthermore, the seasonality of this month is not favourable to the Peso, and the oversold RSI is following the same evolution as happened other times. Vertical bars in fact are pointing to historical situations where UsdMxn on a weekly scale realized a Rsi below 30. A primary bottom was in the air. At present, however, the Peso is still underestimated in fundamental terms, so we believe that the rebound should not be so deep to make UsdMxn return above 19.50 / 20.
The risk for the South African Rand is that UsdZar comes back over the long-term bullish trend line. The technical level to monitor very carefully is between 14 and 14.50, a technical threshold that would release the bull market. Beware of oscillators because they are reporting a slow but inexorable accumulation phase, which might be dangerous in the future for the Rand. The price range of 11.90 / 12.25 has done a good job preventing UsdZar from going further. A break over the mentioned levels of resistance would put the currency in trouble together with President Zuma's political problems.
The rise of the oil up to $ 50 has prevented the Ruble from an important fall; in fact, the weakness has moved UsdRub from 55 to 60 so far. The level is technically important as we can see from the chart, since here we can find levels of resistance linked to the low of 2016. The market is concerned with the geopolitical tensions between the United States and Russia and it is highly likely that if oil would fail its support for UsdRub would open the door to area 65.
A net bearish break for UsdCny with the moving average that was supporting the bull market that crashed due to bears from 2015. It seems that there is a flight to quality in the geopolitical tensions towards the Chinese currency instead of the American one. The support level of 6.60 where we can find the top of the beginning of 2016 and the low of August 2016 is quite close. The oversold is increasing also considering that we are facing the most important sell off in just one month (-2.5 %). UsdCny: a technical rebound is at least possible, but we feel that a return to area 6.80 will be useful to come back short.
February 03, 2019
The GBPUSD pair has seen a strong rise in 2019 so far. The technical picture on the daily chart even suggests that there's more upside ahead.
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May 15, 2018
This month is once again particularly eventful for the emerging world.
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May 04, 2018
The dollar is the protagonist again thanks to the combined effect of 10-year US yields at 3% and a less aggressive ECB pressing on the need to normalize the monetary policy in Europe.
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April 22, 2018
Bitcoin has been in a falling trend since the start of the year, but the cryptocurrency is currently attempting to break above resistance.
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April 19, 2018
The month of April is proving to be full of events for emerging currencies which have suffered from the intensification of trading tensions between United States and China concerning duties, but also from the renewed political tensions between United States and Russia over the Syrian issue.
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April 05, 2018
After the month of March we are now entering the month of April, in which the seasonality produces its effects.
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March 22, 2018
The emerging currency market is waiting for the evident rise in rates in the United States from the Federal Reserve.
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March 08, 2018
A more “hawkins” Powell than expected gave a nice boost to the US dollar with the 2-year interest rates back to 2.25%.
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February 21, 2018
February has been quite a volatile month so far for the emerging currencies market together with some interesting strengthening stories (South African Rand) and others not so much (see Brazilian Real and Russian Ruble).
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February 08, 2018
The month of February started with a weak Dollar against all the major world currencies, a situation that, in a slightly disordered way, Draghi first and then Trump tried to contain with the usual declaration of the need for a strong Dollar.
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January 24, 2018
The month of January was quiet with some currencies that emerged against the US dollar.
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December 21, 2017
December has not been volatile so far on emerging currencies as in other years when movements on exotic currencies tended to be more important.
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December 07, 2017
The usual analysis of the beginning of the month starts with the main exchange rates in a very interesting month for many reasons.
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November 24, 2017
The month of November is proving to be very tormented for emerging currencies, but there is much more than this.
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November 07, 2017
November started with a somewhat anonymous Federal Reserve meeting that still does not dismantle the market expectations of a new rate hike in sight for the latest 2017 meeting in December.
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October 25, 2017
A negative September for emerging currencies that lost 3% against the Dollar from the peak of the ninth month of the year.
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October 13, 2017
In the month of October a lot of attention will be focused on Europe for political reasons as well as for economic reasons.
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September 27, 2017
In September, the two major banks in the world have shown how the normalization of the monetary policy will continue, but at the same time will be accompanied by a long period of low rates.
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September 24, 2017
When Charles Dow invented swing trading in the late 1908, he could not imagine such a great diffusion of this simple global yet very effective technique.
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September 13, 2017
The ECB meeting of last Thursday officially reopened the final part of 2017 for financial markets.
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September 07, 2017
September is usually a particularly interesting month for every financial market because it follows August miserable macroeconomic data and appointments with major central banks.
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August 03, 2017
In the month of July the Dollar has been the negative protagonist and the Euro the positive one, with other currencies more commodity-oriented and capable of earning different positions.
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July 31, 2017
August is traditionally a volatile month for the currency and financial world in general and therefore the economic data that could represent a market mover must be kept under close observation.
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July 05, 2017
The emerging world starts the month of July under unfavourable conditions. June has been a difficult month for some currencies, first of all the Russian Ruble and then the Brazilian Real, due to rising rates in the US, but also to the continued deterioration in oil prices.
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