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July 31, 2017
August is traditionally a volatile month for the currency and financial world in general and therefore the economic data that could represent a market mover must be kept under close observation.
The main central banks will be missing, but surprises will not fail thanks to the least liquidity on the market. Let's look at the main economic events in detail in each area.
Without the Fed that is taking the usual summer break, investors attentions will be directed specifically towards manufacturing ISM, income and personal expense, all expected in the first part of August. Attention to the ISM services and factory orders (August 3rd), but above all the labour market data for August 4th at the same time as those of the trade balance that could start showing some improvements concerning the Dollar's weakness. The central week of August will begin with production prices (10th) and above all inflation (11th), a real market mover of the future monetary policy and hence also for the dollar. Retail sales will be published on August 15th while on the 17th the focus will be on the Phily Fed, industrial production and leading indicator that can provide useful indications on the status of the manufacturing activity. In the last 10 days of August: publication of durable goods orders (25th) and consumer confidence (29th).
After the press conference of Draghi in the last ECB meeting, the Euro managed to return above the critical threshold of 1.16 on the expectations of a greater economic growth compared to the US by operators. It will be important to monitor this economic information because any disappointments could frustrate the EurUsd bullish. On August 3rd, the composite PMIs will be announced, on August 4th the German factory orders, August 11th for the French and German inflation data, August 14th for the industrial production in the Euro area, August 17th for the inflation of the entire Euro zone, August 22nd for the German Zew, August 25th for the German IFO.
In a UK still wrapped up in the Brexit cloud, the month of August will begin with the very important meeting of the Bank of England, but there are no expectations of a move concerning interest rates. On August 10th we will get the industrial production data, the inflation on August 15th, unemployment on the 16th and retail sales on the 17th.
In Japan the main market movers will be the preliminary data on the second quarter of GDP on August 14th, industrial production the next day and inflation on August 25th. In China, attention to inflation data on August 9th, retail sales and industrial production on August 14th.
As usual, here are the main monetary policy events of the rest of the world (G20 countries)
Australia: ad rates on August 1st
India: ad rates on August 2nd
Mexico: ad rates on August 10th
South Korea: ad rates on August 31st
February 03, 2019
The GBPUSD pair has seen a strong rise in 2019 so far. The technical picture on the daily chart even suggests that there's more upside ahead.
May 15, 2018
This month is once again particularly eventful for the emerging world.
May 04, 2018
The dollar is the protagonist again thanks to the combined effect of 10-year US yields at 3% and a less aggressive ECB pressing on the need to normalize the monetary policy in Europe.
April 22, 2018
Bitcoin has been in a falling trend since the start of the year, but the cryptocurrency is currently attempting to break above resistance.
April 19, 2018
The month of April is proving to be full of events for emerging currencies which have suffered from the intensification of trading tensions between United States and China concerning duties, but also from the renewed political tensions between United States and Russia over the Syrian issue.
April 05, 2018
After the month of March we are now entering the month of April, in which the seasonality produces its effects.
March 22, 2018
The emerging currency market is waiting for the evident rise in rates in the United States from the Federal Reserve.
March 08, 2018
A more “hawkins” Powell than expected gave a nice boost to the US dollar with the 2-year interest rates back to 2.25%.
February 21, 2018
February has been quite a volatile month so far for the emerging currencies market together with some interesting strengthening stories (South African Rand) and others not so much (see Brazilian Real and Russian Ruble).
February 08, 2018
The month of February started with a weak Dollar against all the major world currencies, a situation that, in a slightly disordered way, Draghi first and then Trump tried to contain with the usual declaration of the need for a strong Dollar.
January 24, 2018
The month of January was quiet with some currencies that emerged against the US dollar.
December 21, 2017
December has not been volatile so far on emerging currencies as in other years when movements on exotic currencies tended to be more important.
December 07, 2017
The usual analysis of the beginning of the month starts with the main exchange rates in a very interesting month for many reasons.
November 24, 2017
The month of November is proving to be very tormented for emerging currencies, but there is much more than this.
November 07, 2017
November started with a somewhat anonymous Federal Reserve meeting that still does not dismantle the market expectations of a new rate hike in sight for the latest 2017 meeting in December.
October 25, 2017
A negative September for emerging currencies that lost 3% against the Dollar from the peak of the ninth month of the year.
October 13, 2017
In the month of October a lot of attention will be focused on Europe for political reasons as well as for economic reasons.
September 27, 2017
In September, the two major banks in the world have shown how the normalization of the monetary policy will continue, but at the same time will be accompanied by a long period of low rates.
September 24, 2017
When Charles Dow invented swing trading in the late 1908, he could not imagine such a great diffusion of this simple global yet very effective technique.
September 13, 2017
The ECB meeting of last Thursday officially reopened the final part of 2017 for financial markets.
September 07, 2017
September is usually a particularly interesting month for every financial market because it follows August miserable macroeconomic data and appointments with major central banks.
August 18, 2017
August is usually a volatile month for emerging currencies but it is also useful in estimating possible entry points for any tactical trade in the last part of the year.
August 03, 2017
In the month of July the Dollar has been the negative protagonist and the Euro the positive one, with other currencies more commodity-oriented and capable of earning different positions.
July 05, 2017
The emerging world starts the month of July under unfavourable conditions. June has been a difficult month for some currencies, first of all the Russian Ruble and then the Brazilian Real, due to rising rates in the US, but also to the continued deterioration in oil prices.