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September 07, 2017
September is usually a particularly interesting month for every financial market because it follows August miserable macroeconomic data and appointments with major central banks.
That is why September market movers are very interesting and can generate volatile movements even at a currency level. Obviously the most interesting events involving the Federal Reserve and the ECB are those that can attract more attention. Let's now analyse September data for the world major macroeconomic areas.
After the most important unemployment and ISM manufacturing data published on September 1st, the focus is now on September 6th when ISM services, trade balance and Federal Reserve Beige Book will be announced on the same day. The report on the economic situation will project us in the middle of the month in which production prices (September 13th) and especially inflation (September 14th) will move the markets. In the middle of the month, attention has to be paid to retail sales, but the most important day will be the 20th with the FOMC. Here Yellen will have to be able to handle the delicate issues related to the normalization of monetary policy without affecting the dollar too much. The next day we will get the data on the leading index and the Phily Fed, on September 26th the consumer confidence, on September 27th orders of durable goods. Concerning the previous day, also pay attention to the official conference of Yellen: the main topic is to understand how she will face up to the post FOMC of the 20th.
Again, Draghi and the ECB will represent the central event in September. The appointment is scheduled for September 7th at the same time of the publication of German industrial production. Draghi is expected by the markets especially to understand when the ECB tapering will start and to what to expect. Inflation will be the protagonist on 13th, 14th and 18th September respectively for Germany, France and the entire Eurozone. On September 19th, attention to the German Zew Index followed on the 25th by the German IFO indicator. On September 22nd, attention has to be paid to the Eurozone Pmi.
Before the Bank of England meeting scheduled for September 14th, the data on inflation on September 12th, unemployment on September 13th, and retail sales on 14th.
As with the three economic areas previously analysed in Japan, the central bank will be the central market movers of the month. The Bank of Japan will meet on September 21st to decide on rates followed on September 29th by unemployment and inflation. As far as China is concerned, we can quote in particular September 8th and 9th with the data on trade balance and inflation.
As usual, here is a list the major September monetary policy (announcement rates) events among the G20 countries.
Canada: September 6th
Brazil: September 6th
Turkey: September 14th
Russia: September 15th
South Africa: September 21st
Mexico: September 26th
February 03, 2019
The GBPUSD pair has seen a strong rise in 2019 so far. The technical picture on the daily chart even suggests that there's more upside ahead.
May 15, 2018
This month is once again particularly eventful for the emerging world.
May 04, 2018
The dollar is the protagonist again thanks to the combined effect of 10-year US yields at 3% and a less aggressive ECB pressing on the need to normalize the monetary policy in Europe.
April 22, 2018
Bitcoin has been in a falling trend since the start of the year, but the cryptocurrency is currently attempting to break above resistance.
April 19, 2018
The month of April is proving to be full of events for emerging currencies which have suffered from the intensification of trading tensions between United States and China concerning duties, but also from the renewed political tensions between United States and Russia over the Syrian issue.
April 05, 2018
After the month of March we are now entering the month of April, in which the seasonality produces its effects.
March 22, 2018
The emerging currency market is waiting for the evident rise in rates in the United States from the Federal Reserve.
March 08, 2018
A more “hawkins” Powell than expected gave a nice boost to the US dollar with the 2-year interest rates back to 2.25%.
February 21, 2018
February has been quite a volatile month so far for the emerging currencies market together with some interesting strengthening stories (South African Rand) and others not so much (see Brazilian Real and Russian Ruble).
February 08, 2018
The month of February started with a weak Dollar against all the major world currencies, a situation that, in a slightly disordered way, Draghi first and then Trump tried to contain with the usual declaration of the need for a strong Dollar.
January 24, 2018
The month of January was quiet with some currencies that emerged against the US dollar.
December 21, 2017
December has not been volatile so far on emerging currencies as in other years when movements on exotic currencies tended to be more important.
December 07, 2017
The usual analysis of the beginning of the month starts with the main exchange rates in a very interesting month for many reasons.
November 24, 2017
The month of November is proving to be very tormented for emerging currencies, but there is much more than this.
November 07, 2017
November started with a somewhat anonymous Federal Reserve meeting that still does not dismantle the market expectations of a new rate hike in sight for the latest 2017 meeting in December.
October 25, 2017
A negative September for emerging currencies that lost 3% against the Dollar from the peak of the ninth month of the year.
October 13, 2017
In the month of October a lot of attention will be focused on Europe for political reasons as well as for economic reasons.
September 27, 2017
In September, the two major banks in the world have shown how the normalization of the monetary policy will continue, but at the same time will be accompanied by a long period of low rates.
September 24, 2017
When Charles Dow invented swing trading in the late 1908, he could not imagine such a great diffusion of this simple global yet very effective technique.
September 13, 2017
The ECB meeting of last Thursday officially reopened the final part of 2017 for financial markets.
August 18, 2017
August is usually a volatile month for emerging currencies but it is also useful in estimating possible entry points for any tactical trade in the last part of the year.
August 03, 2017
In the month of July the Dollar has been the negative protagonist and the Euro the positive one, with other currencies more commodity-oriented and capable of earning different positions.
July 31, 2017
August is traditionally a volatile month for the currency and financial world in general and therefore the economic data that could represent a market mover must be kept under close observation.
July 05, 2017
The emerging world starts the month of July under unfavourable conditions. June has been a difficult month for some currencies, first of all the Russian Ruble and then the Brazilian Real, due to rising rates in the US, but also to the continued deterioration in oil prices.