Trading CFDs carries considerable risk of capital loss. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
March 08, 2018
A more “hawkins” Powell than expected gave a nice boost to the US dollar with the 2-year interest rates back to 2.25%.
The interesting aspect is that this movement on the short-term rates did not coincide with a similar movement of the long-term rates. In fact, the yield curve expressed by the 10-2 spread has flattened a lot since mid-February falling from 78 basis points to the current 60. This element expresses the perplexities of the market about a monetary policy that could become too penalizing for the future economic growth. The reaction of the greenback was however temporary because the usual tweet of Trump has ruined the party with the announcement tariffs on U.S. imports of steel and aluminium that are likely to trigger a trade war with difficult consequences to estimate.
The movement seen last Thursday below 1.22 was a classic bear trap that was quite disappointing on the possibility of formalizing a double top with consequences that would have been bearish up to 1.19 / 1.20 for EurUsd.
Nothing to do with the protectionism of Trump that now risks triggering a new wave of sales on the Dollar. First a bearish engulfing pattern then a second upward push have pushed EurUsd away from the support zones, thus feeding the expectations for a return in the upper part of the range positioned around 1.25. Also in case of new bearish pressures, keep in mind the upward trend line that rises from April and currently in transit at 1.21. It will be difficult to see EurUsd below those levels.
The weakness of Usd combined with the strength of Jpy triggered by the "hawkins" statements by Kuroda about the possibility that in 2019 the Boj could begin to remove the monetary stimulus, has definitely confirmed the bearish break of the bullish trend line that joined the low of UsdJpy in the last two years, a movement that already started in January with the fall below 110 and is now confirmed with the break of 106.50 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the whole rise). At this point, area 100/101 should represent the ideal support zone for the current bearish movement.
The weakness of the Australian Dollar was heavily hit by Trump proposal to activate tariffs on steel and aluminium. Predictably, this may immediately cause a decline in demands of which, a producer of raw materials such as Australia, would obviously be a victim.
The downward trend of the Aussie should continue up to 0.76 where we can place the trend line that joins the three primary lows since the beginning of 2016. At that point we will understand if the market intends to relaunch the quotations of AudUsd.
The Cable continues in its slow falling phase towards 1.36 where the top of September 2017 is positioned. The bearish sequence was divided into two waves composed of three sub-segments that would seem to qualify the current movement as corrective. In theory, therefore, at 1.36 the fall should be exhausted, but the involvement of the lower wall of the uptrend channel in transit at 1.35 before the restart cannot be excluded.
February 03, 2019
The GBPUSD pair has seen a strong rise in 2019 so far. The technical picture on the daily chart even suggests that there's more upside ahead.
May 15, 2018
This month is once again particularly eventful for the emerging world.
May 04, 2018
The dollar is the protagonist again thanks to the combined effect of 10-year US yields at 3% and a less aggressive ECB pressing on the need to normalize the monetary policy in Europe.
April 22, 2018
Bitcoin has been in a falling trend since the start of the year, but the cryptocurrency is currently attempting to break above resistance.
April 19, 2018
The month of April is proving to be full of events for emerging currencies which have suffered from the intensification of trading tensions between United States and China concerning duties, but also from the renewed political tensions between United States and Russia over the Syrian issue.
April 05, 2018
After the month of March we are now entering the month of April, in which the seasonality produces its effects.
March 22, 2018
The emerging currency market is waiting for the evident rise in rates in the United States from the Federal Reserve.
February 21, 2018
February has been quite a volatile month so far for the emerging currencies market together with some interesting strengthening stories (South African Rand) and others not so much (see Brazilian Real and Russian Ruble).
February 08, 2018
The month of February started with a weak Dollar against all the major world currencies, a situation that, in a slightly disordered way, Draghi first and then Trump tried to contain with the usual declaration of the need for a strong Dollar.
January 24, 2018
The month of January was quiet with some currencies that emerged against the US dollar.
December 21, 2017
December has not been volatile so far on emerging currencies as in other years when movements on exotic currencies tended to be more important.
December 07, 2017
The usual analysis of the beginning of the month starts with the main exchange rates in a very interesting month for many reasons.
November 24, 2017
The month of November is proving to be very tormented for emerging currencies, but there is much more than this.
November 07, 2017
November started with a somewhat anonymous Federal Reserve meeting that still does not dismantle the market expectations of a new rate hike in sight for the latest 2017 meeting in December.
October 25, 2017
A negative September for emerging currencies that lost 3% against the Dollar from the peak of the ninth month of the year.
October 13, 2017
In the month of October a lot of attention will be focused on Europe for political reasons as well as for economic reasons.
September 27, 2017
In September, the two major banks in the world have shown how the normalization of the monetary policy will continue, but at the same time will be accompanied by a long period of low rates.
September 24, 2017
When Charles Dow invented swing trading in the late 1908, he could not imagine such a great diffusion of this simple global yet very effective technique.
September 13, 2017
The ECB meeting of last Thursday officially reopened the final part of 2017 for financial markets.
September 07, 2017
September is usually a particularly interesting month for every financial market because it follows August miserable macroeconomic data and appointments with major central banks.
August 18, 2017
August is usually a volatile month for emerging currencies but it is also useful in estimating possible entry points for any tactical trade in the last part of the year.
August 03, 2017
In the month of July the Dollar has been the negative protagonist and the Euro the positive one, with other currencies more commodity-oriented and capable of earning different positions.
July 31, 2017
August is traditionally a volatile month for the currency and financial world in general and therefore the economic data that could represent a market mover must be kept under close observation.
July 05, 2017
The emerging world starts the month of July under unfavourable conditions. June has been a difficult month for some currencies, first of all the Russian Ruble and then the Brazilian Real, due to rising rates in the US, but also to the continued deterioration in oil prices.