Trading CFDs carries considerable risk of capital loss. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
January 24, 2018
The month of January was quiet with some currencies that emerged against the US dollar.
The weakness of the greenback was in fact spread worldwide, but from the beginning of the year those who gained the most in the emerging world were the Mexican Peso (+ 6%) and the Colombian Peso. Good results also for the Brazilian Real (+ 3%) and the Russian Ruble (+ 2%). Great expectations for the end of the month meeting of the two most important central banks in the world with focus mainly on the Federal Reserve on January 31st. No tension on commodities nor on spreads: a golden moment for the emerging currencies that in the last 12 months have reached a nice result against the Dollar (+ 8%).
Let's now go into details concerning the trend of the main exchange ratios.
UsdCny suffered the rather hostile attitude towards the US government bonds put in place by China about its currency reserves and also the German decision to switch (for marginal amounts now) between Treasury and Chinese securities within their reserves. Considering the support level reached by UsdCny, it is better to have a cautious attitude here.
As we can see from the chart, the trend line that drives the rise since 2014 and the 61.8% of Fibonacci positioned at 6.40 passes on the current level. Rsi-price divergences are also maturing on the weekly chart that crosses the tops of 2015. All clues requiring a more conservative approach to the Yuan.
The Turkish Lira seems to be on hold in the strengthening process carried on from the beginning of 2018. After the double top achieved at 3.92 (tops of January 2017 and January 2018, but also January 2016) UsdTry has turned downward stopping its run at 3.73. Our point of reference is the 65-week moving average (currently at 3.61) that we do not believe will be violated, but will still represent a pole of attraction in the next few weeks.
The market seems to have found a basis in UsdZar that could hinder the ambitions of the Rand for the next few months. Area 12 has represented the main reference of resistance for UsdZar for years, violated in 2015 and a support now. A first downtrend attempt and a second one in these weeks confirm the value of this support. The Fibonacci fan lines clarify even better the notion of relevance of area 12. In case of a yielding it could fall down another figure, but in this case we should buy UsdZar.
Best performer of the beginning of this year, the Mexican Peso is creating a quite interesting potential bullish head and shoulder technical structure that could re-launch Mxn ratings. UsdMxn has found a very interesting support at 17.60 that becomes the potential neck line of this figure.
This week will represent the fourth downtrend week but oscillators are still far from the oversold point and let us think to the chance of a trend fall below the uptrend line. In the event of a break of 17.75 the bearish prospects on UsdMxn would be much stronger.
February 03, 2019
The GBPUSD pair has seen a strong rise in 2019 so far. The technical picture on the daily chart even suggests that there's more upside ahead.
May 15, 2018
This month is once again particularly eventful for the emerging world.
May 04, 2018
The dollar is the protagonist again thanks to the combined effect of 10-year US yields at 3% and a less aggressive ECB pressing on the need to normalize the monetary policy in Europe.
April 22, 2018
Bitcoin has been in a falling trend since the start of the year, but the cryptocurrency is currently attempting to break above resistance.
April 19, 2018
The month of April is proving to be full of events for emerging currencies which have suffered from the intensification of trading tensions between United States and China concerning duties, but also from the renewed political tensions between United States and Russia over the Syrian issue.
April 05, 2018
After the month of March we are now entering the month of April, in which the seasonality produces its effects.
March 22, 2018
The emerging currency market is waiting for the evident rise in rates in the United States from the Federal Reserve.
March 08, 2018
A more “hawkins” Powell than expected gave a nice boost to the US dollar with the 2-year interest rates back to 2.25%.
February 21, 2018
February has been quite a volatile month so far for the emerging currencies market together with some interesting strengthening stories (South African Rand) and others not so much (see Brazilian Real and Russian Ruble).
February 08, 2018
The month of February started with a weak Dollar against all the major world currencies, a situation that, in a slightly disordered way, Draghi first and then Trump tried to contain with the usual declaration of the need for a strong Dollar.
December 21, 2017
December has not been volatile so far on emerging currencies as in other years when movements on exotic currencies tended to be more important.
December 07, 2017
The usual analysis of the beginning of the month starts with the main exchange rates in a very interesting month for many reasons.
November 24, 2017
The month of November is proving to be very tormented for emerging currencies, but there is much more than this.
November 07, 2017
November started with a somewhat anonymous Federal Reserve meeting that still does not dismantle the market expectations of a new rate hike in sight for the latest 2017 meeting in December.
October 25, 2017
A negative September for emerging currencies that lost 3% against the Dollar from the peak of the ninth month of the year.
October 13, 2017
In the month of October a lot of attention will be focused on Europe for political reasons as well as for economic reasons.
September 27, 2017
In September, the two major banks in the world have shown how the normalization of the monetary policy will continue, but at the same time will be accompanied by a long period of low rates.
September 24, 2017
When Charles Dow invented swing trading in the late 1908, he could not imagine such a great diffusion of this simple global yet very effective technique.
September 13, 2017
The ECB meeting of last Thursday officially reopened the final part of 2017 for financial markets.
September 07, 2017
September is usually a particularly interesting month for every financial market because it follows August miserable macroeconomic data and appointments with major central banks.
August 18, 2017
August is usually a volatile month for emerging currencies but it is also useful in estimating possible entry points for any tactical trade in the last part of the year.
August 03, 2017
In the month of July the Dollar has been the negative protagonist and the Euro the positive one, with other currencies more commodity-oriented and capable of earning different positions.
July 31, 2017
August is traditionally a volatile month for the currency and financial world in general and therefore the economic data that could represent a market mover must be kept under close observation.
July 05, 2017
The emerging world starts the month of July under unfavourable conditions. June has been a difficult month for some currencies, first of all the Russian Ruble and then the Brazilian Real, due to rising rates in the US, but also to the continued deterioration in oil prices.