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You are here: Home > Blog > Forex Majors Technical Analysis – February 2018

Forex Majors Technical Analysis – February 2018

February 08, 2018

The month of February started with a weak Dollar against all the major world currencies, a situation that, in a slightly disordered way, Draghi first and then Trump tried to contain with the usual declaration of the need for a strong Dollar.

We cannot really see a lot of strength on the horizon, but as we can see in the technical analysis of EurUsd we are at a key turning point and really expecting an immediate reaction of the greenback.

EURUSD

The chart is quite evident: it is clear that the market, despite a spread between Treasury and Bund still above 200 basis points, must understand whether it is worth risking to go short on the Dollar with the hedge funds close to the top long positions of Euro, or if it may be appropriate to buy Dollars back after the outburst of the last few months.

Every trader or investor will have his personal view, but certainly between 1.25 and 1.28 the game is decisive. The parallel that the Dollar owners really fear is that of the first years of the twenty-first century when the Euro took off after four years of weakness. We can monitor the EurUsd reaction on the resistance and, on the other hand, take into account the importance of the 12-month moving average that always represents an excellent support in the trend phases. Currently it is positioned at 1.154.

 

eurusd0802.jpg

USDJPY

UsdJpy is still moving around 108/110, a level of support that during 2017 was tested several times (with the September slip up to 107.3) but never violated. Here we can find the 50% of retracement of the rise started from 98.92 and the next step positioned at 106.45 (61.8%). Considering that in the futures market the hedge funds have a very strong net short exposure of Yen, it is not excluded that this support will be put under pressure in the coming weeks.

usdjpy0802.jpg

GBPUSD

A great moment for the Cable that is trying to scratch the resistances positioned between 1.40 and 1.42 and that from the 90s until the Brexit have always contained the fall of GbpUsd. What was once a support has now become a resistance, but obviously a rise above this important technical threshold would have significant implications for the Pound that would undergo a further upgrade. After permanently exceeding 1.42, GbpUsd should head towards 1.52 where the bearish trend line that joins the 2007 tops and those of 2014 passes through.

 

gbpusd0802.jpg

USDCHF

The Swiss Franc is coming back after months of anonymity. UsdChf, has stationed for months between 0.94 and 1.03 and then it has tried a bearish break in January. Obviously the month of February will give us the confirmation of the goodness of this movement, but certainly the three consecutive months of downtrend and the Macd returned below the zero line seem to confirm the will of the market to try to move away from this lateral phase. It is mainly on the line chart based on the monthly closures that we appreciate the ongoing break attempt. Between 0.88 and 0.92 we can find the first most relevant supports.

usdchf0802.jpg

  


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