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You are here: Home > Blog > Forex Majors Technical Analysis – November 2017

Forex Majors Technical Analysis – November 2017

November 07, 2017

November started with a somewhat anonymous Federal Reserve meeting that still does not dismantle the market expectations of a new rate hike in sight for the latest 2017 meeting in December.

In the meantime, the changeover to Fed tops with Powell replacing Yellen has been confirmed. Also confirmed the tax cut promised by Trump.

Meanwhile, in Europe, the ECB seems to move away from the risk of a very aggressive tapering, thus allowing the Euro to catch its breath. November is a traditionally stable month in the forex world and precedes the much volatile month of December.

Let's now check the technical condition of the major global exchange rates.


The formalization of the bearish head and shoulder has finally reached EurUsd. We had expected it last month, and the breakup of 1.1660 started the substantial sell off but, at least so far, it did not reach 1.15. Our view is still oriented to a weakness of EurUsd. As a first element of certainty, we can of course consider the stop beyond which the bull market will become overpowering for EurUsd.

The right shoulder on October 12th placed at 1.1880 would in fact be the last limit beyond which the thesis of a dollar strength period would be sustainable. Conversely, all the targets of the reversal figure are still open downward. Area 1.1420 is also the first major support, because of the 38.2% of retracement of the whole rise stated at the beginning of 2017.

In the second round, EurUsd could fall down to 1.1220 where we can find the 50% of retracement of the bull market.



Abe has been confirmed as Japan leader in the October elections and this should allow the Bank of Japan to pursue its expansive monetary policy. This is what markets also thought at first, but then there was once again a return interest on the Jpy by preventing UsdJpy to overcome that crash of criticism at 114.50. Three times in 2017 this level has been undermined, but three times the bears have returned to push UsdJpy down. At present, therefore, the situation is stable without excluding a new lunge in area 107/108 in the coming weeks. Above 114.50 there would be a bearish trend line in place since 2015, which would be the real test to interpret the future of UsdJpy.



Battle in progress on GbpUsd. As we can see from the chart, two strengths are opposing. The bears have on their side the downward trend line in place since 2014 that stopped the Cable in September. The bulls, on the other hand, have the freshness of the upward trend of a year-long trend and that last week has favoured the rebound of GbpUsd. Who is going to win? Below 1.30 bears, above 1.3650 bulls.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England raised rates after 10 years bringing the cost of money to 0.50%.



As expected AudUsd failed to climb above area 0.81 which represents a significant technical strength obstacle. From that moment on, a fairly significant downward trend has begun, which should find a significant support threshold between 0.75 and 0.76. It is also interesting to note how this weakness of Aussie came in a favourable moment for commodities.


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