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October 13, 2017
In the month of October a lot of attention will be focused on Europe for political reasons as well as for economic reasons.
The independent declaration of Catalonia could create confusion in a market that was only ready to wait for the data coming from the ECB meeting of October 26th. The political uncertainty in Britain is another element to be taken into account. Let's look at the forecasts for the main exchange rates in October.
There is really little doubt that in the next few months the game will be played between 1.17 and 1.20. At this point buyers and sellers will collide decisively, probably until the ECB meeting. We were able to test how on several occasions the 1.20 psychological resistance threshold was able to hold the bullish attempts of EurUsd.
The prompt market correction has made it clear that the market is not yet ready to see further weakness in the Dollar and perhaps Yellen, announcing a rise in rates likely to be in December, charted the classic sand line for EurUsd at 1.20 for a few months. The question of Catalan independence stays in the game, and it could affect ECB decisions in the October 26th meeting delaying the tapering. The widening of the spread between Spain and Germany is in fact an element of instability that could theoretically be added to the 2018 Italian election event. In operational terms, the breakthrough of the 1.1660 / 1.17 supports would produce an immediate acceleration down to 1.14. Upward, the overcoming of the 20-day mobile average at 1.1820 will bring 1.20 under pressure.
The rise of UsdJpy keeps on pressing the resistance of area 112.70/ 113. This is not surprising, too, because a number of dynamic resistances passes through these parts. Rising up over this threshold and then over 115 would probably also release the long-term interest rates to which UsdJpy is closely related. Our view is, however, concerning a downward phase toward 110 before a new assault to the resistance.
The resistance of 1.35 was the point beyond which for British citizens the doors would be opened for a much stronger strengthening of the Pound. Nothing to do with the market that for three consecutive weeks has shaken the Cable back. Brexit is still leading, but also the possibility of raising rates coming from the Bank of England after the arrival of inflation in London is getting a lot of attention. On the opposite side, 1.30 will be the support that GbpUsd will have to maintain. A loss of this level would coincide with a rather chaotic phase even for the English politics.
The two bullish legs that began in 2016 were exactly equal to 0.81, a point where AudUsd stopped his run. Was it really a double top? Well, it may be, but in order to formalize the trend reversal, a breakthrough of 0.78 is necessary. At that point, the return to 0.76 (and the fall of commodities) will inevitably occur with a concomitant test of the upward trend line in place since 2016. A real test for a currency that is heavily influenced by the rising of US rates getting closer and closer to the official Australian rate of 1.50%.
February 03, 2019
The GBPUSD pair has seen a strong rise in 2019 so far. The technical picture on the daily chart even suggests that there's more upside ahead.
May 15, 2018
This month is once again particularly eventful for the emerging world.
May 04, 2018
The dollar is the protagonist again thanks to the combined effect of 10-year US yields at 3% and a less aggressive ECB pressing on the need to normalize the monetary policy in Europe.
April 22, 2018
Bitcoin has been in a falling trend since the start of the year, but the cryptocurrency is currently attempting to break above resistance.
April 19, 2018
The month of April is proving to be full of events for emerging currencies which have suffered from the intensification of trading tensions between United States and China concerning duties, but also from the renewed political tensions between United States and Russia over the Syrian issue.
April 05, 2018
After the month of March we are now entering the month of April, in which the seasonality produces its effects.
March 22, 2018
The emerging currency market is waiting for the evident rise in rates in the United States from the Federal Reserve.
March 08, 2018
A more “hawkins” Powell than expected gave a nice boost to the US dollar with the 2-year interest rates back to 2.25%.
February 21, 2018
February has been quite a volatile month so far for the emerging currencies market together with some interesting strengthening stories (South African Rand) and others not so much (see Brazilian Real and Russian Ruble).
February 08, 2018
The month of February started with a weak Dollar against all the major world currencies, a situation that, in a slightly disordered way, Draghi first and then Trump tried to contain with the usual declaration of the need for a strong Dollar.
January 24, 2018
The month of January was quiet with some currencies that emerged against the US dollar.
December 21, 2017
December has not been volatile so far on emerging currencies as in other years when movements on exotic currencies tended to be more important.
December 07, 2017
The usual analysis of the beginning of the month starts with the main exchange rates in a very interesting month for many reasons.
November 24, 2017
The month of November is proving to be very tormented for emerging currencies, but there is much more than this.
November 07, 2017
November started with a somewhat anonymous Federal Reserve meeting that still does not dismantle the market expectations of a new rate hike in sight for the latest 2017 meeting in December.
October 25, 2017
A negative September for emerging currencies that lost 3% against the Dollar from the peak of the ninth month of the year.
September 27, 2017
In September, the two major banks in the world have shown how the normalization of the monetary policy will continue, but at the same time will be accompanied by a long period of low rates.
September 24, 2017
When Charles Dow invented swing trading in the late 1908, he could not imagine such a great diffusion of this simple global yet very effective technique.
September 13, 2017
The ECB meeting of last Thursday officially reopened the final part of 2017 for financial markets.
September 07, 2017
September is usually a particularly interesting month for every financial market because it follows August miserable macroeconomic data and appointments with major central banks.
August 18, 2017
August is usually a volatile month for emerging currencies but it is also useful in estimating possible entry points for any tactical trade in the last part of the year.
August 03, 2017
In the month of July the Dollar has been the negative protagonist and the Euro the positive one, with other currencies more commodity-oriented and capable of earning different positions.
July 31, 2017
August is traditionally a volatile month for the currency and financial world in general and therefore the economic data that could represent a market mover must be kept under close observation.
July 05, 2017
The emerging world starts the month of July under unfavourable conditions. June has been a difficult month for some currencies, first of all the Russian Ruble and then the Brazilian Real, due to rising rates in the US, but also to the continued deterioration in oil prices.