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Market movers - March 2018

March 01, 2018

A list of important events that can move the markets in March...

The greenback has recovered a little on the other currencies after the extreme weakness of January. Probably the market had already incorporated in prices much of the news on Trump tax policies and interest rates, but we believe that in large part this evolution reflects an excess of sales that had occurred between the end of 2017 and the beginning of 2018.

In March we will witness the return on stage of the two main central banks, the FED and the ECB. Waiting for these two events, there will still be a lot of macro data that will shift the balance of the markets.

Let’s now see the main market movers in detail.

United States

Before the FOMC the new President Powell will speak on the first of March and we will know if he wants to provide interesting anticipations. On the same day, attention to the ISM manufacturing index. Afterwards, on March 5th, the ISM services index will be published in addition to factory orders. On March 7th the important trade balance data will be published together with the Beige Book. On March 9th, a crucial day with the labour market data. On March 13th, the inflation (CPI) and on March 14th  producer prices (PPI) will help to better understand the orientation of the FED which on March 21st  should raise interest rates by 25 basis points. On March 23rd we will get the orders of durable goods, and on the 27th the consumer confidence and finally the GDP data on March 28th.

Euroland

The Italian elections on March 4th represent a crucial event in Europe together with the ECB meeting. The uncertainties linked to the majority that could lead Italy represent a potential weak point for the Euro even if so far the markets have not shown much interest. Things are different for the ECB: on March 8th Mario Draghi will have to confirm not only the tapering times, but he will also have to talk about the Euro and the recently reached strength. In addition to these two events, attention to March 13th, the publication date of the German Zew, March 16th with the inflation data in Euroland and March 22nd the German IFO.

UK

On March 2nd both Premier May and the President of the Bank of England Carney will speak to the markets. With a temporal leap we reach March 20th, the publication date of the inflation and March 22nd , the Bank of England meeting.

Japan

Also for the Bank of Japan we have the second appointment of 2018 with the meeting scheduled for March 8th. Attention also to the inflation data of March 22nd, industrial production, unemployment and retail sales on March 29th.

Rest of the world

Here below the dates of the main monetary policy events:

Australia: March 6th

Turkey: March 7th

Canada: March 8th

Norway: March 15th

Brazil: March 21st

New Zealand: March 22nd

South Africa: March 28th


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