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Forex Market Movers – December 2017

December 01, 2017

December is crucial for the currency market, but not just because of the important meeting of the Federal Reserve scheduled for the 13th.

Miss Yellen is preparing the handover to Powell, the economy is running at full speed and monetary policy is gradually increasing current rates. The problem, however, is the yield curve that continues to narrow its spread within 10-2 years. A cause of concern for both the Fed (hourly rising rates could be negative for the economy) and Trump as the flattening of the curve usually means a forthcoming economic slowdown. Let’s now see a list of the main market movers of December.

United States

The start of the month is as usual featured by data on ISM manufacturing (December 1st), factory orders (December 4th), trade balance and ISM services (December 5th), but above all unemployment and non-farm payrolls in November (December 8th). Before the Fed, the data of the following week will impact the markets; production prices on December 12th  and inflation on December 13th  will anticipate the decision on rising rates of the Fed at 1.50%, which is already 99% off the market. Continuing in the week, we will get retail sales (December 14th), industrial production (December 15th), Phily Fed and anticipatory index (December 21st) closing this 2017 before the holidays.

Euroland

The December ECB meeting should not provide any big news since Draghi has already indicated the policy guidelines for 2018, but surprises may not be missed. The political situation is still unstable in Germany despite the strong growth data of November. Bearing in mind that Italy  will vote for the Eurozone in the spring, a bit of instability may come at a crucial moment for the economy. On the macroeconomic side, above all, we can quote the German Zew Index on December 12th , the Pmi indicator on December 14th, inflation on December 18th and the German IFO on December 19th. Obviously the most important day will be December 14th with the ECB meeting.

UK

After the rise in rates in Britain, it’s now time for the next move and its impacts on the economy. Attention is therefore paid to industrial production (December 8th), inflation and production prices (December 12th), unemployment (December 13th), retail sales and above all the meeting of the Bank of England on December 14th.

Japan

Expecting Japanese inflation and unemployment data on December 1st, industrial production on December 14th and Tankan index on December 15th. Further update on inflation is expected for December 28th (this will be the December figure), but a particular concern for the Bank of Japan meeting scheduled for December 21st.

Rest of the world

Below are the monetary policy events of the other G20 countries:

- India (December 6th)

- Canada (December 6th)

- Brazil (December 6th)

- Turkey (December 14th)

- Mexico (December 14th)


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