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Forex Market Movers – Month of July

June 30, 2017

As always, the month of July represents the antechamber to the month of August, a usually volatile month for financial markets due to the low amount of trades and lower presence of institutional transactions.

The seventh month of the year will, however, be rich in appointments. Let's see them together.

United States

The Fed raised the rates in June as promised, but the long-term returns and, above all, the yield curve, are not providing encouraging signals about the prospects of an economic growth. The T-Note yield slipped to 2.10% and the yield curve expressed by the differential 10-2 is back below 80 basis points. That's why it will be essential to examine correctly the many macro data in July.

Everything starts with the ISM manufacturing on July 3rd, followed by factory orders and durable goods on July 5th, when the Fed will release the most important FOMC minutes of June. On July 6th attention to the trade balance and ISM services, although the hottest data will always be represented by the unemployment rate. The central part of July will still be quite interesting: on July 12th the publication of the Beige Book, on July 13th, production prices, on July 14th inflation surprisingly down by 0.1% with the deflation still in background. Still on the 14th, retail sales and industrial production will be announced. This month is quite full of data: on July 20th, the Phily Fed and anticipatory index and on the 25th the consumer confidence. But attention to July 26th, still a Fed Day. There should not be ups and downs, but considering that the data will be just before the Gdp of the second half (July 28th), there could be very interesting results.

EURO AREA

Euroland is approaching the German election in September quietly. It seems that the Italian risk is walking away with the Btp Bund spread that fell decisively. So back to the basics. On June 7th German factory orders, on July 12th industrial production in Euroland, on July 18th inflation along with the German Zew Index. The ECB is back in Europe but should not create any surprise on July 20th. On July 24th attention to the European PMI indices, the day before the publication of the German IFO.

UK

In a politically lost Britain, on July 12th the unemployment data, on July 18th the inflation, retail sales on July 20th, and especially on July 26th, the GDP data for the second quarter. It will still be interesting to check the performance of the Pound after the last meeting of the BOE when 3 Board members voted against the decision to keep rates unchanged.

JAPAN and CHINA

The Tankan Index on July 3rd will inaugurate the Japanese macro data month, culminating on July 28th with unemployment and inflation. However, on July 20th the day will be highlighted with the Bank of Japan meeting.

As far as China is concerned, the publication of the inflation data should be reported on July 10th and the trade balance on July 13th. On July 17th attention to the second quarter of the Pil.

REST OF THE WORLD

Below are the dates of major monetary policy appointments between the G20 countries:
- July 4th Australia
- July 12th Canada
- July 20th South Africa
- July 27th Turkey


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