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FX Market Movers – October 2017

October 04, 2017

The month of October is dense with appointments, especially with reference to the news that might come from Central Banks.

If, for the Federal Reserve, the market now stands at a high probability of rising rates in December, the ambiguous statements of Mr.Draghi on tapering and over-volatility in Europe leave us ready to all options. As usual, we are going to check out the market movers of October for the main economic areas of the G20.

United States

On October 4th the ISM services will be published and the next day we will get the trade balance and factory orders. As usual, the beginning of the month will be crucial to understanding the evolution of the labour market; on October 6th, however, the data on unemployment will be published and above all also the data on the creation of new jobs (NFP), 156 k in August. The issue of price variation remains central and on October 12th we will get the September production prices followed the next day by the inflation data. By going back a few days, the minutes of the last FOMC scheduled for October 11th will be crucial. Still on the calendar, attention to retail sales on October 13th, followed by industrial production on October 17th. After the publication of the Beige Book scheduled for October 18th, we will reach the end of October with the Markit Pmi data scheduled for the 24th, but especially on October 27th the Gdp of the third quarter of 2017 will be published. Among the noteworthy verbal interventions of Yellen we can quote those expected on October 4th and 21st.

Euro area

Obviously, all the attention will be on the ECB meeting of October 26th, a date in which Draghi will clarify the intentions of the Frankfurt board. This will be a crucial and anticipated step that will certainly generate volatility for the EurUsd exchange rate. Before that, however, attention to the macroeconomic data. Above all, the industrial production expected on October 12th, the German Zew of October 17th, and on the same day, Euroland inflation will be crucial to give a position to financial operators before the ECB meeting. Pmi Markit (October 24th) and the German IFO (October 25th) will also attend the ECB meeting on the 26th.

UK

Waiting for a rise in rates announced by the Bank of England in the coming months, markets will pay close attention to Britain inflation figures and expected production prices for October 17th. Also fundamental: unemployment numbers and retail sales expected to be released on October 17th and 18th. On October 25th the data on the third quarter of GDP.

JAPAN

The early elections involving Japan could put macroeconomic data in the background, but certainly some variables will have to be taken into account for those working with JPY, especially trade balance (October 10th) and inflation (October 27th), the most interesting data.

REST OF THE WORLD

As usual, here is a list of dates for the Central Bank Meetings scheduled for October.

Canada: October 25th

Turkey: October 26th

Russia: October 27th


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