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Forex Market Movers – November 2017

November 02, 2017

November starts with the Federal Reserve meeting that should lead to the rise of rates in the month of December.

November also takes note of the ECB decisions in terms of monetary policy. Draghi respected the expectations by halving the bond volume of Frankfurt in 2018 but extending the maturity. This has disappointed the market by contributing to weakening EurUsd, also thanks to the bad political situation in Catalonia.

It could be a much more volatile end of the year than what we have seen so far with emerging currencies that are beginning to suffer.

On the background, there is a widespread optimism on stock markets linked mainly to the growing expectations of Trump tax cuts.

Let’s now check the main macro data for November in each economic area.

United States

On November 1st FOMC and ISM manufacturing. Two days later, data on unemployment (last data 4.2%), ISM services, trade balance and factory orders will be released on a particularly promising day. With a two-week skip , in the middle of the month production and consumer prices will be announced on November 14th and 15th. The next day attention to the Phily Fed and industrial production, while on the 20th the leading index.

On November 22nd, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting will be published together with orders for durable goods. The month will end on November 28th with consumer confidence following November 29th with the revising of the third quarter GDP data.

Euroland

After the effects of the very awaited ECB meeting, the market will again focus on macroeconomic data. On November 6th factory orders and composite PMI indicators, on November 14th attention to industrial production data, German Pil and Zew. On November 16th we will get  the data on Euroland inflation (1.5% the previous data), followed on the 23rd by the last ECB meeting minutes of October. Last data on November 24th with the German IFO.

UK

In the uncertainty of Brexit, the Bank of England will meet for the usual monetary policy meeting scheduled for November 2nd. On November 3rd, attention to the PMI Composite Indices, followed by November 9th by the publication of industrial production data and trade balance. Inflation data on November 14th, unemployment on the 15th, retail sales on the 16th and the publication of the third quarter GDP in 2017 on November 28th.

Japan

While the Japanese stock market is still going on with strong rates, also thanks to Abe recent reconfirmation in recent elections, on November 15th we will get the GDP, industrial production, and retail sales on November 29th. Meanwhile, the publication of the latest minutes of the Bank of Japan scheduled for November 9th.

G20 Central Banks Meetings

The main monetary policy events for the other G20 countries are:

Australia: November 7th

Mexico: November 9th

South Africa: November 23rd


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