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May 04, 2018
The month of May starts with a key appointment with the Federal Reserve.
The American data are very important as the market appears to be worried at the moment, especially concerning inflation. The Fed orientation could therefore shift the balance. Let's see in detail the main market movers of this month.
A lot of events and key macro data for the United States this month. The Federal Reserve will meet on May 2nd without probably raising rates, but as always acting as a market mover on the market due to its monetary policy view for the rest of the year. Based on the market expectations about the future rise of rates, the dollar will move accordingly. Also very important in the first week of May the data on the trade balance which is essential to Trump and actually deteriorating in recent months despite the weakness of the Dollar. The data will be released on May 3rd together with the ISM services and factory orders. The following day the unemployment data that disappointed the markets in April with just 103 thousand new paychecks issued.
On May 9th we will get the trend of the April production prices and then on the 10th the inflation data. Retail sales on May 15th will highlight the trend in domestic demand and will be followed by industrial production on May 16th. On May 17th, the leading index and the Phily Fed one before the end of the month with durable goods orders (May 25th) and consumer confidence (May 29th). On May 30th, the Fed will release the Beige Book, but above all attention will be turned to May 23rd when the FOMC minutes of the beginning of the month will be published.
On May 2nd the first quarter of the Euro zone will be published, expected by the markets at + 2.7% on an annual basis. On May 5th, the PMI data of Euroland will clarify the speed degree of the economic recovery, as they are naturally anticipatory. On May 7th, attention to German factory orders, while on May 15th, the particularly awaited ZEW will be published after the drastic drop in expectations last month. The April inflation rate in Europe will be announced on May 16th. On May 25th, attention to the German IFO.
The data on British inflation below the expectations last month puts the focus on the data that will be released on May 23rd . The attention is obviously turned to the Bank of England meeting scheduled for May 10th with the market expecting two new rises by the end of 2018. On May 15th the unemployment data will be announced while on May 24th retail sales. At the end of the month, on the 25th the data on the first quarter GDP.
The Japanese GDP data for the first quarter will be announced on May 16th while the April inflation will be published on May 18th. The month will close on May 29th with the unemployment data. In terms of monetary policy, attention to May 7th with the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Boj.
Here below the dates of the main monetary policy events of the G20 countries
Brazil: May 16th
Mexico: May 17th
South Africa: May 24th
Canada: May 30th