Trading CFDs carries considerable risk of capital loss. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
April 19, 2018
The month of April is proving to be full of events for emerging currencies which have suffered from the intensification of trading tensions between United States and China concerning duties, but also from the renewed political tensions between United States and Russia over the Syrian issue.
All these uncertain elements could impact on the global economic growth with the gold and oil rises that confirm the fears that are affecting the financial markets struggling with a rising rates monetary policy that will progress gradually in the US. Let's now see in detail the trend of the main emerging currencies.
The main victim of this first part of April is the Russian Ruble which, between war declarations by Trump and new sanctions on oligarchs and Russian companies decided by the Americans, has suffered a monthly fall of more than 8%. Technically the 55.50 support has been tested twice before attending last week turning point with the break of 61.4. After the formalization of a double bottom, the target is now 67/68 before a potential intervention by the Russian central bank that could try to stem the capital flight. Considering that this all happened in a weak dollar environment, the investment in Rubles still appears premature.
Involved in tensions with Syria and ally of Russia, Turkey and its currency have suffered the sales of the markets that want to be sure before taking positions on emerging currencies like the Turkish one. The exchange rate of UsdTry thus rises to new tops definitively exceeding that threshold of 4 which in the course of 2017 had stemmed twice the attempts to increase the exchange rate. This movement now restores the bull market on UsdTry with difficult targets in a technical point of view. The upper wall of the channel is now very close, and this situation could favour an ultra-speculative phase with upward accelerations that could also become parabolic if the Turkish authorities do not intervene to defend the local currency.
As we predicted, the downtrend of UsdMxn stopped just before the important support of area 18. Even if the turbulences of this month saved the Mexican Peso confirming its over performance compared to other emerging currencies, on the other hand we believe that it will be complicated in the short term for the Peso to be able to overcome important technical levels in a medium term view. A phase of minor directionality with respect to what we have seen since the beginning of the year is therefore expected for UsdMxn.
UsdZar also stops its fall exactly on the support zone of 12. Here is the top of 2008 and it was foreseeable that UsdZar would take at least a pause for reflection after the powerful falling leg of this first part of 2018. As for The Mexican Peso, the difficult season that awaits the emerging currencies between May and June, leaves us perplexed about the ability of the South African Rand to gain further ground in the short term.
February 03, 2019
The GBPUSD pair has seen a strong rise in 2019 so far. The technical picture on the daily chart even suggests that there's more upside ahead.
May 15, 2018
This month is once again particularly eventful for the emerging world.
May 04, 2018
The dollar is the protagonist again thanks to the combined effect of 10-year US yields at 3% and a less aggressive ECB pressing on the need to normalize the monetary policy in Europe.
April 22, 2018
Bitcoin has been in a falling trend since the start of the year, but the cryptocurrency is currently attempting to break above resistance.
April 05, 2018
After the month of March we are now entering the month of April, in which the seasonality produces its effects.
March 22, 2018
The emerging currency market is waiting for the evident rise in rates in the United States from the Federal Reserve.
March 08, 2018
A more “hawkins” Powell than expected gave a nice boost to the US dollar with the 2-year interest rates back to 2.25%.
February 21, 2018
February has been quite a volatile month so far for the emerging currencies market together with some interesting strengthening stories (South African Rand) and others not so much (see Brazilian Real and Russian Ruble).
February 08, 2018
The month of February started with a weak Dollar against all the major world currencies, a situation that, in a slightly disordered way, Draghi first and then Trump tried to contain with the usual declaration of the need for a strong Dollar.
January 24, 2018
The month of January was quiet with some currencies that emerged against the US dollar.
December 21, 2017
December has not been volatile so far on emerging currencies as in other years when movements on exotic currencies tended to be more important.
December 07, 2017
The usual analysis of the beginning of the month starts with the main exchange rates in a very interesting month for many reasons.
November 24, 2017
The month of November is proving to be very tormented for emerging currencies, but there is much more than this.
November 07, 2017
November started with a somewhat anonymous Federal Reserve meeting that still does not dismantle the market expectations of a new rate hike in sight for the latest 2017 meeting in December.
October 25, 2017
A negative September for emerging currencies that lost 3% against the Dollar from the peak of the ninth month of the year.
October 13, 2017
In the month of October a lot of attention will be focused on Europe for political reasons as well as for economic reasons.
September 27, 2017
In September, the two major banks in the world have shown how the normalization of the monetary policy will continue, but at the same time will be accompanied by a long period of low rates.
September 24, 2017
When Charles Dow invented swing trading in the late 1908, he could not imagine such a great diffusion of this simple global yet very effective technique.
September 13, 2017
The ECB meeting of last Thursday officially reopened the final part of 2017 for financial markets.
September 07, 2017
September is usually a particularly interesting month for every financial market because it follows August miserable macroeconomic data and appointments with major central banks.
August 18, 2017
August is usually a volatile month for emerging currencies but it is also useful in estimating possible entry points for any tactical trade in the last part of the year.
August 03, 2017
In the month of July the Dollar has been the negative protagonist and the Euro the positive one, with other currencies more commodity-oriented and capable of earning different positions.
July 31, 2017
August is traditionally a volatile month for the currency and financial world in general and therefore the economic data that could represent a market mover must be kept under close observation.
July 05, 2017
The emerging world starts the month of July under unfavourable conditions. June has been a difficult month for some currencies, first of all the Russian Ruble and then the Brazilian Real, due to rising rates in the US, but also to the continued deterioration in oil prices.